To see the introduction to this series: Views of the International Game of Space Strategy Part 2: China's Space Strategy
Russia’s space program has long been a platform of its leadership on the international stage. An original pioneer into the space age since its launch of the first artificial satellite, Sputnik-1, and the first person in space, Yuri Gagarian, it became relied upon to send supplies and personnel to the International Space Station for a decade when the United States had stopped launching missions from its own soil. Since its conception, the Russian Space Program is robust, but unlike China’s it is not as well funded and much more focused. Over the last two decades, Russia has been developing an arsenal of space denial (or counterspace) weapons. These weapons include electronic warfare capabilities “to deny, degrade, and disrupt communications and navigation and [Directed Energy Weapons] to deny the use of space-based imagery.” [19] In late 2019, Russia tested the Kosmos anti-satellite weapon. The Kosmos-2542 carried the smaller satellite Kosmos-2543 sub-satellite, like a matryoshka doll, which reportedly has buzzed Low Earth Orbit US spy satellites and launched a projectile into orbit at a relative high speed of 500 miles per hour, which has led to concerns about the potential Russian capability to target foreign satellites.[20] Also, Western Intelligence also has reason to believe that Russia has developed ground-based weapons designed to kill satellites. [21] To understand the space strategy that Russia is pursuing it is important to remember that “[s]imilar to China, Russia supports space arms control agreements to prevent weaponization of space, even as it views space as a warfighting domain.” [22] As we explore the Russian doctrine for space, we need to examine the security threat they pose to Western powers: “The security threat posed by Russia is difficult for the West to manage as, in our view and that of many others, it appears fundamentally nihilistic. Russia seems to see foreign policy as a zero-sum game: any actions it can take which damage the West are fundamentally good for Russia. It is also seemingly fed by paranoia, believing that Western institutions such as NATO and the EU have a far more aggressive posture towards it than they do in reality. There is also a sense that Russia believes that an undemocratic ‘might is right’ world order plays to its strengths, which leads it to seek to undermine the Rules Based International Order – whilst nonetheless benefitting from its membership of international political and economic institutions. Russia’s substantive aims, however, are relatively limited: it wishes to be seen as a resurgent ‘great power’ – in particular, dominating the countries of the former USSR – and to ensure that the privileged position of its leadership clique is not damaged.” [23] “Russia is not the only state investigating anti-satellite weaponry capabilities. There is a wider trend (e.g. China, India, US) to demonstrate advanced space capabilities with nefarious, if not directly offensive, intent. But, for the past few years, Russia in particular, has been provocative in testing its space weapon capabilities. [I]n April 2020, Russia launched and tested into low orbit the PL-19 Nudol direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) interceptor missile system from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome demonstrating its space assets with potential offensive capabilities, in particular, Russia’s capacity to destroy satellites in Low Earth Orbit. “In addition, the satellites, Kosmos-2535 and Kosmos-2536, launched in July 2019, are also suspected to be operating beyond their official mission of studying Russian orbital assets. It is reported that these satellites conducted a close proximity activity, coming within one kilometer from each other, which led to the creation of orbital debris.” [24] Russian Military thinkers and strategist believe that the importance of space will continue to expand and be a warfighting domain where achieving supremacy will be a decisive factor in winning future conflicts. In accordance, Russia is seeking to lead in the growing role of precision weapons and information networks in all types of conflicts. At the same time, Russia’s international political “chess moves” have been to express concern over the weaponization of space and purse binding space arms control agreements to box in what it sees as the US weaponization of outer space. All of these maneuvers are to strike what it sees as the United States “chink in their armor”, the reliance of the United States on space. In pursuit of its space and counterspace strategy, Moscow reorganized its military and civilian space programs in 2015. It created the “Aerospace Forces by merging the former Air Force and Aero-space Defense Troops. This new force includes Russia’s space forces, who have the mission to conduct space launches and maintain the ballistic missile early warning system, the satellite control network, and the space surveillance network. The defense minister stated the change was “prompted by a shift in the center of gravity... towards the aerospace sphere” and as a counter to the U.S. Prompt Global Strike doctrine.” [25] In the process, Russia has reorganized its civil space program to correct inefficiencies across its space industry and to place that space industry almost exclusively into the ownership of the State. With this reorganization, Russia is updating and improving its space launch capabilities to enhance reliability, alleviate environmental concerns, increase manufacturing efficiencies, and support future human spaceflight and deep-space exploration missions, [26] including the upgrading of the rocket lift capabilities. It is also looking to enhance its satellite communication system, which is essential not only to its civilian communication capabilities but also its military communication capabilities. Russia lags behind China and the United States in the number of satellites, but its high-resolution imagery, navigation, ballistic missile early warning, electronic intelligence satellites have a higher capability than China’s. [27] Currently, according to Western Intelligence agencies, Russia’s counterspace capabilities include:
[19] Challenges to Space Security, The Defense Intelligence Agency, January 2019 https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/Space_Threat_V14_020119_sm.pdf [20] “Russia’s Behaviour Risks Weaponizing Outer Space” Unal, Beyza and Boulègue, Mathieu, Chatham House, July 27, 2020 [21] Challenges to Space Security [22] Challenges to Space Security [23] Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, United Kingdom, July 21, 2020 [24] “Russia’s Behaviour Risks Weaponizing Outer Space” [25] Challenges to Space Security [26] Challenges to Space Security [27] Challenges to Space Security
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